Formula and assumptions
expected openings to first = 1 ÷ p
The model assumes the same probability on every independent opening, with no pity, dynamic luck, changing pool or duplicate protection.
Expected openings versus a guarantee
Expected openings is a long-run average, not a deadline. For any chance below 100%, a finite opening count cannot guarantee a drop.
When this model does not apply
If the game changes odds over time, has pity, uses non-independent rolls or does not show a trustworthy probability, use the result only as a hypothetical scenario—not a prediction.
Game-specific presets
There are none yet. A preset will appear only after its exact probability and conditions have current, field-level evidence.
See the evidence rules →